Betting Sector Leaders Outline Potential Impacts of Machine Games Duty Adjustment Ahead of Budget
Written by Cameron Griffin · Sep 26, 2026
Betting Sector Leaders Outline Potential Impacts of Machine Games Duty Adjustment Ahead of Budget
Grainne Hurst, chief executive of the UK’s Betting and Gaming Council, has issued a warning about the effects of increasing Machine Games Duty from its current 20 percent level to 40 percent in advance of the Autumn Budget, and those figures show up to 16,000 job losses alongside the possible closure of nearly 1,500 betting shops plus as many as 34 casinos, while the Treasury could end up £124 million worse off overall. The statement comes at a time when land-based venues already contend with rising operational costs and earlier regulatory adjustments that have reshaped the sector since 2019.
Current Context for Land-Based Gambling Venues
Observers note that more than 3,000 betting shops have closed across the UK since 2019, a trend that reflects sustained pressure from multiple directions including higher business expenses and changes in how gaming machines are taxed and regulated. Hurst’s assessment draws on economic modelling of potential MGD increases that places the proposed duty hike in September 2026 against this backdrop of ongoing contraction, and it underscores how further tax adjustments could accelerate venue closures while reducing overall government revenue rather than increasing it.
Details of the Warning Issued by the Betting and Gaming Council
The Betting and Gaming Council’s position highlights direct connections between the duty rate and employment levels in physical locations, where betting shops and casinos serve as local employers and community hubs in many towns and cities. Data from the organisation indicates that the combined effect of job reductions and venue shutdowns would remove substantial economic activity from high streets, and this contraction would in turn diminish tax receipts from other sources such as business rates, corporation tax, and employee income contributions. The net result, according to the modelling, leaves the Treasury with a shortfall of £124 million once all secondary impacts are accounted for.
Existing pressures on these venues include elevated energy and staffing costs that have accumulated since the pandemic period, along with prior regulatory measures that limited maximum stakes on certain gaming machines. These factors have already contributed to the loss of over 3,000 shops, and industry analysts point out that an additional duty increase of this scale would compound those challenges at a moment when footfall in physical retail spaces remains sensitive to broader economic conditions.
Economic Modelling and Revenue Considerations
Economic modelling shared alongside the warning examines how a doubled Machine Games Duty rate would alter operator margins and investment decisions across the land-based sector. The analysis projects that higher tax burdens would reduce the number of viable locations, leading to fewer machines in operation and therefore lower overall duty collected despite the increased percentage rate. This dynamic has been observed in past tax adjustments where initial revenue gains were offset by reduced activity volumes, and the current projections follow the same pattern by forecasting a £124 million net loss for the Treasury.
Those who have examined similar duty changes in other jurisdictions note that land-based operators often respond by scaling back expansion plans or accelerating site rationalisation when margins tighten. In the UK setting this response would translate into the cited figures of 16,000 positions at risk and the potential shuttering of 1,500 shops together with 34 casinos, numbers that represent a significant share of the remaining physical estate after the post-2019 reductions.
Broader Implications for Employment and Local Economies
Job losses of the scale described would affect not only direct employees in betting shops and casinos but also supply-chain roles that support these businesses, from maintenance contractors to security services and local suppliers. Regional economies that still host clusters of venues would experience knock-on effects through reduced spending in nearby retail and hospitality outlets, and the cumulative impact could alter the character of high streets already adjusting to shifts in consumer behaviour. The Betting and Gaming Council’s statement frames these outcomes as avoidable if the duty rate remains unchanged, while emphasising that the sector continues to contribute through existing taxation and regulatory compliance frameworks.
Conclusion
The warning from Grainne Hurst centres on verifiable projections that link a proposed Machine Games Duty increase to measurable reductions in employment, venue numbers, and Treasury income. With more than 3,000 shops already closed since 2019 and ongoing cost pressures in place, the modelling released ahead of the Autumn Budget presents a clear picture of how further tax changes could reshape the land-based gambling landscape by September 2026 and beyond. The figures stand as the primary reference point for discussions about the balance between revenue targets and sector sustainability in the coming period.